Question 9Which of the following is not a Barnum statement? 以下哪条不是巴纳姆效应？
At times you have serious doubts whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. 有时你十分怀疑自己是否做了正确的决定或正确的事。
B. You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept others statements without satisfactory proof. 你十分自豪自己是一个独立的思考者，没有满意的证据不接受其他论述。
C. You have considerable unused capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. 你有大量未开发的潜力还没有转化为你的优势。
D. A taxi will smash into your car from behind at 5:13pm today on 59th Street. 今天下午5点13分会有一辆出租车在59街撞到你的车。
E. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. 你有一种自我批评的倾向。
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Question 6Which of the following is a motivational explanation for why people believe strange things, as opposed to a cognitive explanation? 与认知解释相对的，以下哪条属于人们相信奇怪事件的动机解释？
A. People often think that seemingly strange coincidences are much less common than they actually are. 人们通常认为看上去奇怪的巧合没有实际发生那么普遍。
B. People learn from many television programs that paranormal phenomena must exist, and those who are critical of such phenomena are close-minded cynics. 人们从许多电视节目中了解到超自然现象一定存在，批判这些现象的人就是思想封闭的愤青。
C. People often interpret ambiguous and inconsistent information in light of their prior experiences. 人们通常从自身以往经验出发理解含糊和不一致的信息。
D. People tend to notice what confirms their beliefs rather than what contradicts them. 人们倾向于注意到支持他们信念的证据而不是与之矛盾的。
E. People take comfort in the paranormal and want to believe in mysteries.人们从超自然中感到安慰，愿意相信神秘。
Question 4When considering the odds of two people in a group sharing the same birthday, you might be shocked to learn that you only need a group of about 23 people for the odds to be about 50 percent. What reason did we provide for why this effect seems so strange?当考虑一组人中两个人同天生日的概率时，仅需要23人这一事件概率即为50%，你可以会对这一结论感到震惊。本课所述的这一结论看上去如此奇怪的原因是什么呢？
A. We tend to estimate the probability of an event by assessing how similar it is to events we have experienced before. 我们倾向于通过评价事件与我们以前所经历的事件的相似性来评价发生概率。
B. We often make the common mistake that patterns that show up in long run should be reflected in the short run. 我们通常会犯一般性的错误，认为长期内发生的模式短期内也有反映。
C. We are selfish and think that more people share the our birthday than actually do. 我们很自私，认为更多人和我们同天生日，其实并没有。
D. We tend to interpret the problem in terms of the chance of two specific people who share the same birthday instead of any two people who share the same birthday.我们倾向于把问题理解成两个特殊的人同天生日，而不是任意两个人同天生日。
E. We have difficulty with reasoning about probabilities. 我们难以推测概率。
Question 3In the story, The Adventure of Silver Blaze by Arthur Conan Doyle, Sherlock Holmes made a remark to a fellow detective about the "curious incident" of a watchdog's behavior during the night. The dog had not barked, so the dog must have known the culprit well. What cognitive phenomenon did the great Sherlock Holmes avoid in this example?在阿瑟·柯南·道尔小说《银马案》一书中，夏洛克·福尔摩斯对一位侦探同事做出关于夜间看门狗的行为的“可疑事件”的评论是：狗没叫，所以一定是认识罪犯的。大侦探福尔摩斯在这个例子中避免了哪种认知现象？
A. post hoc ergo propter hoc 后事伴前事而来
B. base rate neglect 基本概率忽略
C. the confirmation bias 确认偏误
D. appeal to authority 权威吸引力
E. multiple endpoints 多重端点
Question 2According to our conversation with Richard Wiseman, how many people believe is psychics or mediums, and how many people have superstitious beliefs (e.g., touch wood, cross their fingers), respectively?根据我们与Richard Wiseman的对话，相信通灵师或巫师，或相信迷信想法（例如，搓木头，交叉手指）的人各自占比多少？
A. Roughly 60% believe in psychics/mediums and 100% have superstitious beliefs.大概有60%的人相信通灵师/巫师而有100%的人相信迷信
B. Roughly 50% believe in psychics/mediums and 50% have superstitious beliefs.大概有50%的人相信通灵师/巫师而有50%的人相信迷信
C. Roughly 10% believe in psychics/mediums and 50% have superstitious beliefs.大概有10%的人相信通灵师/巫师而有50%的人相信迷信
D. Roughly 80% believe in psychics/mediums and 95% have superstitious beliefs.大概有80%的人相信通灵师/巫师而有95%的人相信迷信
E. Roughly 40% believe in psychics/mediums and 90% have superstitious beliefs.大概有40%的人相信通灵师/巫师而有90%的人相信迷信
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