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Question 4When considering the odds of two people in a group sharing the same birthday, you might be shocked to learn that you only need a group of about 23 people for the odds to be about 50 percent. What reason did we provide for why this effect seems so strange?当考虑一组人中两个人同天生日的概率时，仅需要23人这一事件概率即为50%，你可以会对这一结论感到震惊。本课所述的这一结论看上去如此奇怪的原因是什么呢？

A. We tend to estimate the probability of an event by assessing how similar it is to events we have experienced before. 我们倾向于通过评价事件与我们以前所经历的事件的相似性来评价发生概率。
B. We often make the common mistake that patterns that show up in long run should be reflected in the short run. 我们通常会犯一般性的错误，认为长期内发生的模式短期内也有反映。
C. We are selfish and think that more people share the our birthday than actually do. 我们很自私，认为更多人和我们同天生日，其实并没有。
D. We tend to interpret the problem in terms of the chance of two specific people who share the same birthday instead of any two people who share the same birthday.我们倾向于把问题理解成两个特殊的人同天生日，而不是任意两个人同天生日。
E. We have difficulty with reasoning about probabilities. 我们难以推测概率。

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Question 3In the story, The Adventure of Silver Blaze by Arthur Conan Doyle, Sherlock Holmes made a remark to a fellow detective about the "curious incident" of a watchdog's behavior during the night. The dog had not barked, so the dog must have known the culprit well. What cognitive phenomenon did the great Sherlock Holmes avoid in this example?在阿瑟·柯南·道尔小说《银马案》一书中，夏洛克·福尔摩斯对一位侦探同事做出关于夜间看门狗的行为的“可疑事件”的评论是：狗没叫，所以一定是认识罪犯的。大侦探福尔摩斯在这个例子中避免了哪种认知现象？

A. post hoc ergo propter hoc 后事伴前事而来
B. base rate neglect 基本概率忽略
C. the confirmation bias 确认偏误
D. appeal to authority 权威吸引力
E. multiple endpoints 多重端点

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Question 2According to our conversation with Richard Wiseman, how many people believe is psychics or mediums, and how many people have superstitious beliefs (e.g., touch wood, cross their fingers), respectively?根据我们与Richard Wiseman的对话，相信通灵师或巫师，或相信迷信想法（例如，搓木头，交叉手指）的人各自占比多少？

A. Roughly 60% believe in psychics/mediums and 100% have superstitious beliefs.大概有60%的人相信通灵师/巫师而有100%的人相信迷信
B. Roughly 50% believe in psychics/mediums and 50% have superstitious beliefs.大概有50%的人相信通灵师/巫师而有50%的人相信迷信
C. Roughly 10% believe in psychics/mediums and 50% have superstitious beliefs.大概有10%的人相信通灵师/巫师而有50%的人相信迷信
D. Roughly 80% believe in psychics/mediums and 95% have superstitious beliefs.大概有80%的人相信通灵师/巫师而有95%的人相信迷信
E. Roughly 40% believe in psychics/mediums and 90% have superstitious beliefs.大概有40%的人相信通灵师/巫师而有90%的人相信迷信

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Once you have responded to each question below and doubled checked your answers, click the "Final Check" button at the bottom of the page and 'Show answers' to find out if your answers are correct. You can also click "Save" to save your responses without submitting them for a grade. This allows you to stop working on a problem and come back to it later.一旦你已经回答了下列所有问题并反复检查了你的答案，请点击页面下方的“最终提交”以及“显示解答”以确认答案是否正确。你也可以点击“保存”来保存已填答案而不提交得到分数。这样你就可以暂停，稍后再答。注：post hoc ergo propter hoc后事伴前事而来：大多数人都相信只要一件事物伴随著另一件事物而来，两件事物之间必然存在著一种关联，使得后者伴随前者出现（post hoc ergo propter hoc—它在那之后而来，故必然是从此而来）Question 1A subscription-based website offers a variety of brain training exercises to improve your "cognitive fitness" and help you "feel a little brighter." The website features photos of neuroscientists in lab coats from "top universities." Which of the following phenomena did we discuss in this episode that might make you sceptical of these specific claims?一个注册制的网站提供一系列改善“认知健康度”，能帮助你“感觉更聪明”的大脑培训练习。这个网站挂着一些“顶尖大学”的神经学家穿着实验服的照片。以下哪种我们本课讨论过的现象可能会使你对这些特别的展示持怀疑态度？

A. Variable windows of time and the confirmation bias.时间的多重窗口和确认偏误
B. Coincidence and hindsight.巧合和后见之明
C. One-sided events and regression to the mean.片面事件和趋均数回归
D. Base rates and post hoc ergo propter hoc.基本概率和后事伴前事而来
E. Multiple endpoints and an appeal to authority.多重端点和权威吸引力

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Question 10According to Lee Ross and Richard Nisbett, why do people tend to focus on character traits instead of situational factors?

A. Because in our culture, we don't look kindly on people who are in the same situations.
B. It's much easier to invoke dispositions to explain our own behavior because we pay close attention to ourselves rather than others.
C. We don't have the language for what we normally think of as personally traits.
D. It's hard for us to put ourselves in the shoes of others because we don't even know they're wearing shoes.
E. We selectively attend to what people are doing or saying rather than the context and we don’t have many labels for situations that prompt certain behaviours.

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