题目内容
Passage One The Super Bowl is one of the biggest events on the advertising calendar, as companies vie to produce the most memorable and innovative ads. The battle for the National Football League’s ultimate prize attracts more viewers than anything else on American television and provides a "symbolic pulsetaking" for the advertising industry every February, says John Frelinghuysen, an analyst at Bain and Company, a consultancy. But this year the patient is in poor health. All the advertising slots(广告摊位) for the 2008 Super Bowl had been sold by the end of November 2007, despite the $ 2.6 million price of each. For 2009 the price has risen to $ 3 million, but at least, ten slots (out of 67) are still looking for a buyer. General Motors, which ran 11 ads on Super Bowl Sunday in February 2008, has already said that it will not run any in 2009. America’s two other big carmakers, Ford and Chrysler, are likely to follow suit. Tellingly, Monster com, an online job-search company, said recently that it was buying a slot. Instead of the usual parade of expensive ads paying tribute to American consumerism, 2009’s Super Bowl will reflect a country in recession and indicate a hard year for the advertising industry. Most forecasts for next year say that ad spending in America will decline by 5% or more. Much depends on the fate of the automotive industry: carmakers and dealers normally spend around $ 20 billion a year on advertising, but Chrysler and Ford scaled back their expenditure by more than 30% in the first nine months of 2008, and are expected to make further cuts in 2009 as they struggle for survival. The car industry’s situation will hurt all media, but especially television. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets predict that total spending on television ads will fall by almost 9% next year. Only newspapers, where a decline of 12% is expected, are forecast to fare worse. Carmakers have already shifted some of their advertising spending to the Internet, and are likely to go further in 2009. Car ads make up 25% of advertising revenues for local television channels, and carmakers have been among the most consistent buyers of high-priced ads on national television. So far local stations have been most affected by falling spending oil advertising. National stations have been safer, because they operate on longer-term contracts with advertisers. But in the New Year they will also feel the chill, as companies fail to renew their contracts. Television, which has remained strong as print media have lost advertising dollars and readers to the Internet, could enter a decline of its own. "Next on the list is TV stations," says Anthony Diclemente, a media analyst at Barclays Capital. We can learn from the passage that ______.
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This Christmas the world economy offers few reasons for good cheer. As credit contracts and asset prices declined, demand across the globe is declining. Rich countries collectively face the severest recession since the Second World War: this week’s cut in the target for the federal funds rate to between zero and 0.25% shows how fearful America’s policymakers are. And conditions are deteriorating fast too in emerging economies, which have been exhausted by declining exports and the drying-up of foreign finance. This news is bad enough in itself; but it also poses the biggest threat to open markets in the modem era of globalization. For the first time in more than a generation, two of the engines of global integration -- trade and capital flows -- are shifting into reverse at the same time. The World Bank says that net private capital flows to emerging economies in 2009 are likely to be only half the record $ 1 trillion of 2007, while global trade volumes will shrink for the first time since 1982. This twin shift will force adjustments. Countries that have relied on exports to drive growth, from China to Germany, will slump unless they can boost domestic demand quickly. There is a risk that in their discomfort governments turn to an old, but false, friend: protectionism. Integration has less appeal when pain rather than prosperity is hanging across borders. It will be tempting to support domestic jobs and incomes by diverting demand from abroad with export subsidies, tariffs and cheaper currencies. The lessons of history, though, are clear. The economic isolationism of the 1930s cruelly intensified the Depression. To be sure, the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its multilateral trading rules are a bulwark(壁垒) against protection on that scale. But today’s globalised economy, with far-stretched supply chains and just-in-time delivery, could be disrupted by policies much less dramatic than the Smoot-Hawley act. A modest shift away from openness -- well within the WTO’s rules -- would be enough to turn the recession of 2009 much nastier. Increased protection of that sort is, alas, all too plausible. When it is hard to do international trading, countries will not exchange across borders, but choose to support ______.
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