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Human intelligence and the IQ scales used to measure it once again are becoming the focus of fiery debate.As argument rages over declining test scores in the nation"s schools, an old but explosive issue is reappearing ;What is intelligence—and is it determined largely by geneticsThe controversy erupted more than a decade ago when some U. S. scholars saw a racial pattern in the differing scores of students taking intelligence and college-entrance tests.Now, the racial issue is being joined by others. Teachers, psychologists, scientists and lawyers argue over the question of whether IQ—intelligence quotient—tests actually measure mental ability, or if findings areskewedby such factors as family background, poverty and emotional disorders.Moreover, some authorities assert that the rise in the number of college-educated Americans and their tendency to marry among themselves are creating a class of supersmart children of brainy parents—and, on the other side of the scale, alumpenproletariatof children reflecting the supposedly inferior brainpower of their parents.Critics such as Harvard University biologist Richard C. Lewontin disagree. If mental ability were largely determined by inheritance, he says, efforts to enhance intelligence through the betterment of both home and child-rearing environments could only be marginally effective. He comments:"Genetic determinism could be used to justify existing social injustice as predetermined and inevitable and would render efforts made toward equalitarian goals as useless."Supporting Lewontin in this is J. McVicker Hunt, a professor at the University of Illinois, who maintains that IQ levels can he raised significantly by exposing children at an early age to stimulating environments. Hunt"s studies show that early help in such areas as education and nutrition can raise a child"s IQ by an average of 30 to 35 points.At stake in the uproar over IQ is the national commitment to improve the capabilities of the poor by investing billions of dollars annually in educational, medical and job programs. According to some authorities, there will be expected a class of supersmart children because of
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Many people who fly at least occasionally have come down with a cold or the flu shortly after disembarking. Is the air in airborne commercial jets 1 The Association of Flight Attendants (AFA), 2 which 42,000 flight attendants with 27 airlines are represented, evidently thinks so. The organization claims that the incidence of air-quality-related diseases has 3 among its members and demands that prompt actions be 4 to improve the conditions in the airplane cabin.A study the AFA 5 in 1997 uncovered about 1,000 self-reported incidents of headaches, dizziness and memory loss 6 flight attendants and passengers. Some flight attendants were too ill to 7 their safety duties, while others have been permanently disabled.Because of airlines" efforts to 8 their expenses, cabin-air filters are not cleaned 9 . The complaints of flight attendants do not always give 10 to correct maintenance. Airlines turned to recycled air, 11 that they would reduce some of their costs. They are not required to put filters in. Airlines are 12 great pressure to get their flights out 13 . So they do not pay as much attention to systems that are not as 14 to flight schedule and safety.Recent research findings emphasize the concern that filters can 15 engine chemicals into the cabin air. This may not happen 16 every flight, but it is a persistent problem.In a study published in October 1998 an investigation was made 17 complaints of crew members 18 air quality and health. More than half of the 200 subjects reported health problems they 19 to cabin air. It was concluded that these health problems were consistent with 20 harmful gases and substances.
Many people who fly at least occasionally have come down with a cold or the flu shortly after disembarking. Is the air in airborne commercial jets 1 The Association of Flight Attendants (AFA), 2 which 42,000 flight attendants with 27 airlines are represented, evidently thinks so. The organization claims that the incidence of air-quality-related diseases has 3 among its members and demands that prompt actions be 4 to improve the conditions in the airplane cabin.A study the AFA 5 in 1997 uncovered about 1,000 self-reported incidents of headaches, dizziness and memory loss 6 flight attendants and passengers. Some flight attendants were too ill to 7 their safety duties, while others have been permanently disabled.Because of airlines" efforts to 8 their expenses, cabin-air filters are not cleaned 9 . The complaints of flight attendants do not always give 10 to correct maintenance. Airlines turned to recycled air, 11 that they would reduce some of their costs. They are not required to put filters in. Airlines are 12 great pressure to get their flights out 13 . So they do not pay as much attention to systems that are not as 14 to flight schedule and safety.Recent research findings emphasize the concern that filters can 15 engine chemicals into the cabin air. This may not happen 16 every flight, but it is a persistent problem.In a study published in October 1998 an investigation was made 17 complaints of crew members 18 air quality and health. More than half of the 200 subjects reported health problems they 19 to cabin air. It was concluded that these health problems were consistent with 20 harmful gases and substances.
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Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This wave of unprecedented change is driven primarily by advances in information technology, but it is much larger in scope. We are not dealing simply with an Information Revolution but with a Technology Revolution.To anticipate developments in this field, the George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies was launched at the start of the 1990s. We have now completed four rounds of our Delphi survey—in 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996—giving us a wealth of data and experience. We now can offer a reasonably clear picture of what can be expected to happen in technology over the next three decades.Time horizons play a crucial role in forecasting technology. Forecasts of the next five to ten years are often so predictable that they fall into the realm of market research, while those more than 30 or 40 years away are mostly speculation. This leaves a 10-to 20-year window in which to make useful forecasts. It is this time frame that our Forecast addresses.The Forecast uses diverse methods, including environmental scanning, trend analysis, Delphi surveys, and model building. Environmental scanning is used to identify emerging technologies. Trend analysis guides the selection of the most important technologies for further study, and a modified Delphi survey is used to obtain forecasts. Instead of using the traditional Delphi method of providing respondents with immediate feedback and requesting additional estimates in order to arrive at a consensus, we conduct another survey after an additional time period of about two years.Finally, the results are portrayed in time periods to build models of unfolding technological change. By using multiple methods instead of relying on a single approach, the Forecast can produce more reliable, useful estimates.For our latest survey conducted in 1996, we selected 85 emerging technologies representing me most crucial advances that can be foreseen. We then submitted the list of technologies to our panel of futurists for their judgments as to when ( or if) each technological development would enter the mainstream, the probability that it would happen, and the estimated size of the economic market for it. In short, we sought a forecast as to when each emerging technology will have actually "emerged." What we are faced with at present can be best described as a revolution in
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