When retailers want to entice customers to buy a particular product, they typically offer it at a discount. According to a new study to be published in the Journal of Marketing, they are missing a trick. 11 A team of researchers, led by Akshay Rao of the University of Minnesota"s Carlson School of Mana gement, looked at consumers" attitudes to discounting.Shoppers, they found, much prefer getting something extra flee to getting something cheaper. The main reason is that most people are useless at fractions.Consumers often struggle to realize, for example, that a 50% increase in quantity is the same as a 33% discount in price. They overwhelmingly assume the former is better value. 12 In an experiment, the researchers sold 73% more hand lotion when it was offered in a bonus pack than when it carried an equivalent discount(even after all other effects, such as a desire to stockpile, were controlled for).This numerical blind spot remains even when the deal clearly favors the discounted product. 13 In an other experiment, this time on his undergraduates, Mr. Rao offered two deals on loose coffee beans: 33% extra free or 33% off the price.The discount is by far the better proposition, but the supposedly clever students viewed them as equivalent.Studies have shown other ways in which retailers can exploit consumers" innumeracy. One is to befuddle them with double discounting. 14 People are more likely to see a bargain in a product that has been reduced by 20%, and then by an additional 25% than one which has been subject to an equivalent, one-off, 40% reduction.Marketing types can draw lessons beyond just pricing, says Mr. Rao. 15 When advertising a new car"s efficiency, for example, it is more convincing to talk about the number of extra miles per gallon it does, rather than the equivalent percentage fall in fuel consumption.There may be lessons for regulators too. Evert well-educated shoppers are easily foxed. Sending every one back to school for maths refresher-courses seems out of the question. But more prominently displayed unit prices in shops and advertisements would be a great help.
As a young bond trader, Buttonwood was given two pieces of advice, trading rules of thumb, if you will: that bad economic news is good news for bond markets and that every utterance dropping from the lips of Paul Volcker, the then chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the man who restored the central bank"s credibility by stomping on runaway inflation, should be respected than Pope"s orders. Today"s traders are, of course, a more sophisticated bunch. But the advice still seems good, apart from two slight drawbacks. The first is that the well-chosen utterances from the present chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, is of more than passing difficulty. 1 The second is that, of late, good news for the economy has not seemed to upset bond investors all that much.For all the cheer that has crackled down the wires, the yield on ten-year bonds—which you would expect to rise on good economic news—is now, at 4.2%, only two-fifths of a percentage point higher than it was at the start of the year. Pretty much unmoved, in other words.Yet the news from the economic front has been better by far than anyone could have expected. On Tuesday November 25th, revised numbers showed that America"s economy grew by an annual 8.2% in the third quarter, a full percentage point more than originally thought, driven by the ever-spendthrift American consumer and, for once, corporate investment. 2 Just about every other piece of information coming out from special sources shows the same strength.New houses are still being built at a fair clip. Exports are rising, for all the protectionist crying. Even employment, in what had been mocked as a jobless recovery, increased by 125,000 or thereabouts in September and October. 3 Rising corporate profits, low credit spreads and the biggest-ever rally in the junk-bond market do not, on the face of it, suggest anything other than a deep and long-lasting recovery.Yet Treasury-bond yields have fallen.If the rosy economic backdrop makes this odd, making it doubly odd is an apparent absence of foreign demand Foreign buyers of Treasuries, especially Asian certral banks, who had been swallowing American government debt like there was no tomorrow, seem to have had second thoughts lately. 4 In September, according to the latest available figures, foreigners bought only $5-6 billion of Treasuries, compared with$25.1 billion the previous month and an average of $38.7 billion in the preceding four months. 5 In an effort to keep a lid on the yen"s rise, the Japanese central bank is still busy buying dollars and parking the money in government debt.Just about everyboby else seems to have been selling.