W: Mr. Saffo, you’ve been called a "futurist," but you say you hate that term. Talk about that.M: Mm I dislike the term because it’s not an accurate description of what I do. For me, futurists are people who’re excited about the future. They usually have an agenda of some sort. But what I am is something more boring. That is, I just forecast, I don’t predict. I am a technology forecaster, and I spend most of my time looking at electronic technologies. So, I’m looking at information technology very largely, and typically out 5 to 10 years, sometimes as long as 30 years, depending on the project.W: who pays you to de this Do you work for companies who need this informationM: The Institute for the Future is a non-profit foundation that does work for private companies and government agencies. A whole variety of different folks pay us to help them understand things, and we also do free work. Being a non-profit foundation, our basic mission is to encourage people to think systematically about the long-range future. The heart of what we try to do is convince people that it is a meaningful exercise to think systematically about the long range future.W: What are the personal qualities that make you good at what you doM: Mm, curiosity, er, what else Being flexible. Because forecasting is really nothing more than applying common sense. The qualities that make for a good forecaster are the same qualities that make one successful in anything—being flexible, being curious, and being open to change.W: You’ve mentioned that your organization wants to stay small, whyM: It has to do with community. Our unit of work is the team, and you need to have high levels of trust and cooperation among team members. People need to really like and trust each other. The Institute for the Future provides services to private companies and().
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案例分析题MDL的商品供应链管理MDL公司成立于1964年,以其崭新的理念和管理方式在德国及欧洲其他19个国家迅速成长并活跃于全世界,成为财富杂志500强企业之一。1995年,MDL公司携自己成功的管理模式和先进的信息管理系统落户上海,并迅速向外扩展。至2000年,MDL已相继在上海、无锡、宁波、南京及福州等地开设了8家分店。在MDL,电脑控制系统掌握了商品进销存的全部动态,将存货控制在最合理的范围。当商品数量低于安全库存,电脑就能自动产生订单,向供货单位发出订单通知,从而保证商品持续供应和低成本经营。MDL最大的优势就是从一开始就有先进的电脑信息系统对从商品的选择、订货、追加订货到收货、销售、收银每一个环节进行严格的控制。如果能随时对进销存的动态有清晰的了解,就可以及时发现问题,作出快速反应,避免损失的发生,从而在降低库存的同时,提高顾客满意度。当然,进行电脑控制还需要人工的监督和决策配合,需要专门的监督人员检查整个系统,检查订货数量和交货数量是否相符。因此,一般的订货程序是由电脑提出采购预测,管理者再结合经验作出决定。采购预测是影响整个供应链的关键环节,预测的准确性将影响到其他各个环节效率,对成本高低产生直接影响。MDL成功地将从与供应商议价开始,直到下单、接货、上架、销售及收银整个流程,由一系列很完善的规则控制,实行规则化管理。其中,两个降低成本的标准化规则:一是整个店铺的设计标准化,二是操作流程标准化。由于MDL整个供应链的运作是由顾客的需求来拉动的。因而,它能站在客户的角度去思考,提供更加完善的商品和服务。MDL也专门为供应商制作了供货操作手册,包括凭据、资料填写、订货、供货、价格变动、账单管理及付款等过程的方方面面。这种从采购到销售的过程由一套严谨的、标准化的管理程序控制。而这一套标准化管理顺着供应链一直延伸到供应商处,MDL就是通过这种规范化采购运作的延伸,把供应商纳入了自己的管理体系,将供应商的运输系统组合成为为其服务的社会化配送系统,从而大大降低了企业的投资,实现了低成本运营。然而高效率地把产品从供应商传送到顾客手中,需要商品定购、存储和配送过程的优化管理。在整个供应链上不仅仅需要企业内部各个环节能有效地完成各自的工作,更需要供应商与企业之间、客户之间的无缝对接。MDL采用中央采购的形式就是一种双赢形式。实行中央采购有助于降低运作成本,也便于管理。同时,供应商也从中受惠。同时,有的供应商还可以从MDL的互联网站点上直接下载订单,降低订单处理成本。为了进一步降低供应商的成本,MDL还为供应商提供某些管理协助。MDL在同供应商交易时能严格遵守合同所规定的交易期限,按时结算,而且批量大、周转快,加上它奉行的双赢策略,供应商都愿以最低价位向其出售商品。案例分析要求: 结合案例分析供应链管理中,实现低成本高水平服务的关键。
W: Mr. Saffo, you’ve been called a "futurist," but you say you hate that term. Talk about that.M: Mm I dislike the term because it’s not an accurate description of what I do. For me, futurists are people who’re excited about the future. They usually have an agenda of some sort. But what I am is something more boring. That is, I just forecast, I don’t predict. I am a technology forecaster, and I spend most of my time looking at electronic technologies. So, I’m looking at information technology very largely, and typically out 5 to 10 years, sometimes as long as 30 years, depending on the project.W: who pays you to de this Do you work for companies who need this informationM: The Institute for the Future is a non-profit foundation that does work for private companies and government agencies. A whole variety of different folks pay us to help them understand things, and we also do free work. Being a non-profit foundation, our basic mission is to encourage people to think systematically about the long-range future. The heart of what we try to do is convince people that it is a meaningful exercise to think systematically about the long range future.W: What are the personal qualities that make you good at what you doM: Mm, curiosity, er, what else Being flexible. Because forecasting is really nothing more than applying common sense. The qualities that make for a good forecaster are the same qualities that make one successful in anything—being flexible, being curious, and being open to change.W: You’ve mentioned that your organization wants to stay small, whyM: It has to do with community. Our unit of work is the team, and you need to have high levels of trust and cooperation among team members. People need to really like and trust each other. The Institute believes that to think systematically about the long-range future is().
患者,女,37岁,结婚10年,G4P0,孕32周,人流2次,过期流产刮宫一次,阴道少量出血3天,不伴腹痛,体检:儿头高浮,胎心140次/分,耻骨联合上方可闻胎盘杂音 最可能的诊断是
A. 胎盘早剥
B. 前置胎盘
C. 先兆流产
D. 先兆子宫破裂
E. 胎盘边缘血窦破裂
患者,女,26岁,G1P0,孕32周,产前经过顺利,因夫妻同房后腹疼半天、阴道少量出血来院急诊,检查:贫血貌,血压14/10kPa(105/75mmHg),心率112次/分,子宫较孕月大,宫高32cm,子宫张力大,放松差并有轻压痛,胎位、胎心不清,血红蛋白70g/L,血细胞压积28% 该患者最可能的诊断是
A. 前置胎盘
B. 急性羊水过多
C. 双胎
D. 胎盘早剥
E. 早产