题目内容
Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This wave of unprecedented change is driven primarily by advances in information technology, but it is much larger in scope. We are not dealing simply with an Information Revolution but with a Technology Revolution. To anticipate developments in this field, the George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies was launched at the start of the 1990s. We have now completed four rounds of our Delphi survey — in 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996 — giving us a wealth of data and experience. We now can offer a reasonably clear picture of what can be expected to happen in technology over the next three decades. Time horizons play a crucial role in forecasting technology. Forecasts of the next five to ten years are often so predictable that they fall into the realm of market research, while those more than 30 or 40 years away are mostly speculation. This leaves a 10- to 20-year window in which to make useful forecasts. It is this time frame that our Forecast addresses. The Forecast uses diverse methods, including environmental scanning, trend analysis, Delphi surveys, and model building. Environmental scanning is used to identify emerging technologies. Trend analysis guides the selection of the most important technologies for further study, and a modified Delphi survey is used to obtain forecasts. Instead of using the traditional Delphi method of providing respondents with immediate feed- back and requesting additional estimates in order to arrive at a consensus, we conduct another survey after an additional time period of about two years. Finally, the results are portrayed in time periods to build models of unfolding technological change. By using multiple methods instead of relying on a single approach, the Forecast can produce more reliable, useful estimates. For our latest survey conducted in 1996, we selected 85 emerging technologies representing the most crucial advances that can be foreseen. We then submitted the list of technologies to our panel of futurists for their judgments as to when (or if) each technological development would enter the mainstream, the probability that it would happen, and the estimated size of the economic market for it. In short, we sought a forecast as to when each emerging technology will have actually "emerged". Various research methods are employed in order to______.
查看答案
搜索结果不匹配？点我反馈
更多问题
The long years of food shortage in this country have suddenly given way to apparent abundance. Stores and shops are choked with food. Rationing is virtually suspended, and overseas suppliers have been asked to hold back deliveries. Yet, instead of joy, there is widespread uneasiness and confusion. Why do food prices keep on rising, when there seems to be so much more food about Is the abundance only temporary, or has it come to stay Does it mean that we need to think less now about producing more food at home No one knows what to expect. The recent growth of export surpluses on the world food market has certainly been unexpectedly great, partly because a strange sequence of two successful grain harvests in North America is now being followed by a third. Most of Britain’s overseas suppliers of meat, too, are offering more this year and home production has also raised. But the effect of all this on the food situation in this country has been made worse by simultaneous rise in food prices, due chiefly to the gradual cutting down of government support for food. The shops are over- stocked with food not only because there is more food available but also because people, frightened by high prices, are buying less of it. Moreover, the rise in domestic prices has come at a time when world prices have begun to fall with the result that imported food, with the exception of grain, is often cheaper than the home- produced variety. And now grain prices, too, are falling. Consumers are beginning to ask why they should not be enabled to benefit from this trend. The significance of these developments is not lost on farmers. The older generations have seen it all happen before. Despite the present price and market guarantees, farmers fear they are about to be squeezed between cheap food imports and a shrinking home market. Present production is running at 51 percent above pre-war levels, and the government has called for an expansion to 60 percent by 1956; but repeated ministerial advice is carrying little weight and the expansion program is not working very well. The main reason for this rise in food prices is that______.
Questions 11～13 are based on a conversation between two college classmates, You now have 15 seconds to read Questions 11～13. How does the rising population negatively influence some countries
With a new Congress drawing near, Democrats and Republicans are busily designing competing economic stimulus packages. The Republicans are sure to offer tax cuts, the Democrats — among other things — financial relief for the states. There is one measure, however, that would provide not only an immediate boost to the economy but also immediate relief to those most in need: a carefully crafted extension of the federal unemployment insurance program The Senate approved such an extension before it adjourned in November. The House of Representatives refused to go along. It was among the greatest failures of the 107th Congress. One consequence is that jobless benefits for an estimated 780000 Americans will abruptly stop tomorrow, even though most recipients have not yet exhausted their benefits. President Bush failed to show any leader- ship on this matter during the November Congress. Later, he finally asked Congress to extend the program for these workers and to make the benefits effective from Dec. 28. That’s not enough. The way unemployment insurance typically works is that states provide laid-off workers with 26 weeks of benefits, followed by 13 weeks of federal aid. Under Mr Bush’s scheme, federal benefits would be extended only for those who were already receiving them on Dec. 28. The extension would not cover the jobless workers who will exhaust their regular state-funded benefits after Dec. 28 — an estimated 95000 every week —but will receive no federal help unless the program is re-authorized. By the end of March, 1.2 million workers could fall into this category. The Senate saw this problem coming, and under the leadership of Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Don Niekles of Oklahoma, passed a bill that would not only have covered people already enrolled in the federal program but provided 13 weeks of assistance for those losing their state benefits in the new year. The House, for largely trivial reasons, refused to go along. Bill Frist, the new Senate majority leader, says he is looking for ways to put a kinder, gentler face on the Republican Party. Passing the Clinton-Nickles bill would be a good way to begin. The House should then follow suit. One of the House’s complaints last year was that, at $ 5 billion, the Clinton-Nickles bill was too expensive. That’s ridiculous, considering the costs of the tax cuts that House Republicans have in mind. The unemployment rate last month stood at 6 percent, the highest since mid-]994. The country could use a $ 5 billion shot in the arm right about now. So could a lot of increasingly desperate people. According to the author, the proposed extension is ______.
Broadly speaking, the Englishman is a quiet, shy, reserved person who is fully (21) only among people he knows well. In the presence of strangers or foreigners he often seems inhibited, (22) embarrassed. You have only to (23) a commuter train any morning or evening to see the truth of this. Serious-looking businessmen and women sit reading their newspapers or dozing in a corner; no one speaks. In fact, to do so would seem most unusual. (24) ,there is here an unwritten but clearly understood code of behavior which, (25) broken, makes the person immediately the object of (26) It is a well-known fact that the English have a (27) for the discussion of their weather and that, given half a chance, they will talk about it (28) Some people argue that it is because English weather (29) forecast and hence is a source of interest and (30) to everyone. This may be so. (31) Englishmen cannot have much (32) in the weathermen, who, after promising fine, sunny weather for the following day, are often proved wrong (33) a cloud over the Atlantic brings rainy weather to all districts! The man in the street seems to be as accurate — or as inaccurate—as the weathermen in his (34) The overseas visitors may be excused for showing surprise at the number of references (35) weather that the English make to each other in the course of a single day. Very often conversational greetings are (36) by comments on the weather. "Nice day, isn’t it Beautiful!" may well be heard instead of "Good morning, how are you" (37) the foreigner may consider this exaggerated and comic, it is worthwhile pointing out that it could be used to his advantage. (38) he wants to start a conversation with an Englishman but is (39) to know where to begin, he could do well to mention the state of the weather. It is a safe subject which will (40) an answer from even the most reserved of Englishmen.
微信支付 
支付宝支付