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Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This wave of unprecedented change is driven primarily by advances in information technology, but it is much larger in scope. We are not dealing simply with an Information Revolution but with a Technology Revolution.To anticipate developments in this field, the George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies was launched at the start of the 1990s. We have now completed four rounds of our Delphi survey—in 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996—giving us a wealth of data and experience. We now can offer a reasonably clear picture of what can be expected to happen in technology over the next three decades.Time horizons play a crucial role in forecasting technology. Forecasts of the next five to ten years are often so predictable that they fall into the realm of market research, while those more than 30 or 40 years away are mostly speculation. This leaves a 10-to 20-year window in which to make useful forecasts. It is this time frame that our Forecast addresses.The Forecast uses diverse methods, including environmental scanning, trend analysis, Delphi surveys, and model building. Environmental scanning is used to identify emerging technologies. Trend analysis guides the selection of the most important technologies for further study, and a modified Delphi survey is used to obtain forecasts. Instead of using the traditional Delphi method of providing respondents with immediate feedback and requesting additional estimates in order to arrive at a consensus, we conduct another survey after an additional time period of about two years.Finally, the results are portrayed in time periods to build models of unfolding technological change. By using multiple methods instead of relying on a single approach, the Forecast can produce more reliable, useful estimates.For our latest survey conducted in 1996, we selected 85 emerging technologies representing me most crucial advances that can be foreseen. We then submitted the list of technologies to our panel of futurists for their judgments as to when ( or if) each technological development would enter the mainstream, the probability that it would happen, and the estimated size of the economic market for it. In short, we sought a forecast as to when each emerging technology will have actually "emerged." The purpose of the Delphi survey is to
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With a new Congress drawing near, Democrats and Republicans are busily designing competing economic stimulus packages. The Republicans are sure to offer tax cuts, the Democrats—among other things—financial relief for the states. There is one measure, however, that would provide not only an immediate boost to the economy but also immediate relief to those most in need: a carefully crafted extension of the federal unemployment insurance program. The Senate approved such an extension before it adjourned in November. The House of Representatives refused to go along. It was among the greatest failures of the 107thCongress.One consequence is that jobless benefits for an estimated 780,000 Americans will abruptly stop tomorrow, even though most recipients have not yet exhausted their benefits. President Bush failed to show any leadership on this matter during the November Congress. Later, he finally asked Congress to extend the program for these workers and to make the benefits effective from Dec. 28.That"s not enough. The way unemployment insurance typically works is that states provide laid-Off workers with 26 weeks of benefits, followed by 13 weeks of federal aid. Under Mr. Bush"s scheme, federal benefits would be extended only for those who were already receiving them on Dec. 28. The extension would not cover the jobless workers who will exhaust their regular state-funded benefits after Dec. 28—an estimated 95,000 every week—but will receive no federal help unless the program is re-authorized. By the end of March, 1.2 million workers could fall into this category.The Senate saw this problem coming, and under the leadership of Hillary Rodham Clinton for New York and Don Nickles of Oklahoma, passed a bill that would not only have covered people already enrolled in the federal program but provided 13 weeks of assistance for those losing their state benefits in the new year. The House, for largely trivial reasons, refused to go along.Bill Frist, the new Senate majority leader, says he is looking for ways to put a kinder, gentler face on the Republican Party. Passing the Clinton-Nickles bill would be a good way to begin. The House should then follow suit. One of the House"s complaints last year was that, at $5 billion, the Clinton-Nickles bill was too expensive. That"s ridiculous, considering the costs of the tax cuts that House Republicans have in mind.The unemployment rate last month stood at 6 percent, the highest since mid-1994. The country could use a $5 billion shot in the arm fight about now. So could a lot of increasingly desperate people. According to the author, the proposed extension is
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