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Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan laid forth the intellectual basis for the likely continued aggressive easing in monetary policy in the weeks ahead in his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. The broader point in his prepared testimony is that the improved information and production controls evident in the new economyinduce companies to respond more quickly and in tandem to changes in their business. Mistakes are still made as is evidenced by the unwanted buildup of inventories at the end of last year, but any mistakes are more aggressively addressed than in the past, as is evidenced by manufacturers’ recent slashing of production. Moreover, the increasingly dramatic shifts in economic activity are particularly hard on confidence. Consumers and businesses literally freeze up due to the heightened uncertainty, and run from any perceived risks and curtail their spending and investment. If confidence deflates by enough, then a recession will ensue. Confidence has also been under extraordinary pressure in recent months due to surging energy prices and weaker stock prices. Higher energy bills have acted much like a tax increase, save the checks are largely being written to foreign energy producers. The lower stock prices are having a magnified impact due to the dramatic increase in stock wealth since the mid-1990s. The conduct of monetary policy must adjust to all of this, and thus respond more quickly and aggressively than in the past in an effort to shore up confidence. This explains the dramatic and unprecedented action (at least by a Greenspan-led Federal Reserve) to cut the federal funds rate target by 100 basis points in January: This also suggests that substantially more easing is on the way in the weeks ahead. Just when and by how much will depend on whether confidence continues to fall. The chairman made a point to note that policymakers have significant latitude to ease policy aggressively since inflation remains low and tame. Despite surging energy prices, inflation and inflation expectations remain contained. The Federal Reserve’s economic projections for this year provided as part of the testimony support this non-recessionary view. Real GDP is expected to grow by between 2% and 2. 5% between the fourth quarter of 2000 and the fourth quarter of this year. Since this is below the economy’s potential growth, the jobless rate will rise to approximately 4. 5% by year’s end. Inflation will moderate somewhat in response. Recession risks are rising and as high as they have been since the last downturn almost a decade ago. The key buffer between a soft economy and a recessionary one is confidence, and today’s testimony by the Federal Reserve chairman clearly indicates that policymakers will be as aggressive as they need to be to ensure that confidence erodes no further. With just a bit of luck they will succeed. According to the passage, the new economy is characterized by______
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Science writer Tom Standage draws apt parallels between the telegraph and the gem of late 20th-century technology, the Internet. Both systems grew out of the cutting edge science of their time. The telegraph’s land lines, underwater cables, and clicking gadgets reflected the 19th century’s research in electromagnetism. The Internet’s computers and high-speed connections reflect 20th-century computer science, information theory, and materials technology.But, while gizmos make a global network possible, it takes human cooperation to make it happen. Standage’s insight in this regard adds depth to his technological history. It underscores the relevance to our own time of the struggles of Samuel Morse in America, William Cooke in England, and other telegraph pioneers. They made the technology work efficiently, sold it to a skeptical public, and overcame national and international bureaucratic obstacles. The solutions they found smooth the Internet’s way today.Consider a couple of technical parallels. Telegrams were sent from one station to the next, where they were received and retransmitted until they reached their destination. Stations along the way were owned by different entities, including national governments. Internet data is sent from one server computer to another that receives and retransmits it until it reaches its destination. Again the computers have a variety of owners.Then there is the social impact. The Internet is changing the way we do business and communicate. It makes possible virtual communities for individuals scattered around the planet who share mutual interests. Yet important as this may turn out to be, it is affecting a world that was already well connected by radio, television, and other telecommunications. The Associated Press, Reuters, and other news services would have spread the Start report quickly without the Internet. In this respect, the global telegraph network was truly revolutionary. The unprecedented availability of global news in real time gave birth to the Associated Press and Reuters news services. It gave a global perspective to newspapers that had focused on local affairs. A provincialism that geographical isolation had forced on people for millennia was gone forever.Some prophets naively hailed this as a force for world peace. They predicted that tensions over cultural and ethnic differences would relax as people interacted in real time. Visionaries say the same about the Internet. While communications can smooth this process, they don’t automatically make it happen. As the experience of the past century and a half has shown, peace takes the will to make it work and sustained effort by all parties. The word "gizmos" (Paragraph 2) most probably means（）
In an effort to alleviate America’s increasing dependence on foreign oil and mitigate the worst effects of the current power crisis, Sens Frank Murkowski and John Breaux recently introduced the National Security Energy Act of 2001. While the bill contains a wide array of provisions, including everything from $ 1 billion for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program to the promotion of alternative fuel vehicles, the most controversial measure calls for opening a small portion of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) for oil and gas exploration. Liberals have already gone to war over the measure, charging that the potential resources in ANWR are negligible, that drilling in ANWR will have calamitous effects on the environment, and that any oil and gas that does come out of the area will arrive too late to solve any of the energy challenges consumers currently face. Yet such arguments simply don’ t stand up to the evidence. In the first place, no one actually knows how much oil is available. A 1998 survey by the U. S. Geological Survey estimated that there are between 4. 3 and 11.8 billion barrels of oil within the area that could be recovered. Even using the low estimate, this would still be enough to supply all of the energy needs of the United States for nearly two-thirds of a year, more than enough to merit further exploration into the ANWR environment. Moreover, there is little evidence that the environment will be harmed by such activity. The New York Times Science Section recently pointed out that innovations in technology and technique have greatly reduced the environmental "footprint" left by oil exploration in general, and Mr. Murkowski estimates that the development resulting from even a large ANWR oil field would cover only about three square miles. Since drilling began in the Prudhoe Bay oil field, the herds of nearby caribou have greatly increased in size. Populations of nesting migratory birds have also gotten larger, "Over the past 20 years, the population of polar bears has remained exceedingly healthy," according to Mr. Murkowski. Helping the public is the primary reason for such drilling, even if the oil won’t reach the market for months after the first well is capped. In the long-term, oil from ANWR will help lower energy prices, alleviate long-term energy shortages and reduce America’s dependence on foreign oil. Currently, about 55 percent of America’s dally oil consumption of almost 20 million barrels comes from foreign sources--700, 000 from Iraq. According to the Department of Energy, this dependence could grow to 64 percent by 2020. By then, the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggests, "fully 50 percent of estimated total global oil demand will be met from countries that pose a high risk of internal instability." America needs long-term solutions to its domestic energy needs and a smart start would be by exploring the resources at ANWR. Which of the following is NOT true according to the text
(略)Part Ⅱ VocabularyOld people are always saying that the young are not what they were. The same comment is made from generation to generation and it is always true. It has never been truer than it is today. The young are better educated. They have a lot more money to spend and enjoy more freedom. They grow up more quickly and are not so dependent on their parents. They think more for themselves and do not blindly accept the ideals of their elders. Events which the older generation remembers vividly are nothing more than past history. This is as it should be. Every new generation is different from the one that preceded it. Today the difference is very marked indeed. The old always assume that they know best for the simple reason that they have been around a bit longer. They don’t like to feel that their values are being questioned or threatened. And this is precisely what the young are doing. They are questioning the assumptions of their elders and disturbing their complacency. They take leave to doubt that the older generation has created the best of all possible worlds. What they reject more than anything is conformity. office hours, for instance, are nothing more than enforced slavery. Wouldn’t people work best if they were given complete freedom and responsibility And what about clothing Who said that all the men in the world should wear drab gray suits and convict haircuts If we turn our minds to more serious matters, who said that human differences can best be solved through conventional politics or by violent means Why have the older generation so often used violence to solve their problems Why are they so unhappy and guilt-ridden in their personal lives, so obsessed with mean ambitions and the desire to amass more and more material possessions Can: anything be right with the rat-race Haven’t the old lost touch with all that is important in life These are not questions the older generation can shrug off lightly. Their record over the past forty years or so hash’t been exactly spotless. Traditionally, the young have turned to their elders for guidance. Today, the situation might he reversed, The old--if they are prepared to admit it--could earn a thing or two from their children. one of the biggest lessons they could learn is that enjoyment is not "sinful". Enjoyment is a principle one could apply to all aspects of life. It is surely not wrong to enjoy your work and enjoy your leisure; to shed restricting inhibitions, It is surely not wrong to live in the present rather than in the past or future. This emphasis on the present is only to be expected because the young have grown up under the shadow of the bomb: the continual threat of complete annihilation. This is their glorious heritage. Can we be surprised that they should so often question the sanity of the generation that bequeathed it Which of the following would be the best title for this passage
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan laid forth the intellectual basis for the likely continued aggressive easing in monetary policy in the weeks ahead in his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. The broader point in his prepared testimony is that the improved information and production controls evident in the new economyinduce companies to respond more quickly and in tandem to changes in their business. Mistakes are still made as is evidenced by the unwanted buildup of inventories at the end of last year, but any mistakes are more aggressively addressed than in the past, as is evidenced by manufacturers’ recent slashing of production. Moreover, the increasingly dramatic shifts in economic activity are particularly hard on confidence. Consumers and businesses literally freeze up due to the heightened uncertainty, and run from any perceived risks and curtail their spending and investment. If confidence deflates by enough, then a recession will ensue. Confidence has also been under extraordinary pressure in recent months due to surging energy prices and weaker stock prices. Higher energy bills have acted much like a tax increase, save the checks are largely being written to foreign energy producers. The lower stock prices are having a magnified impact due to the dramatic increase in stock wealth since the mid-1990s. The conduct of monetary policy must adjust to all of this, and thus respond more quickly and aggressively than in the past in an effort to shore up confidence. This explains the dramatic and unprecedented action (at least by a Greenspan-led Federal Reserve) to cut the federal funds rate target by 100 basis points in January: This also suggests that substantially more easing is on the way in the weeks ahead. Just when and by how much will depend on whether confidence continues to fall. The chairman made a point to note that policymakers have significant latitude to ease policy aggressively since inflation remains low and tame. Despite surging energy prices, inflation and inflation expectations remain contained. The Federal Reserve’s economic projections for this year provided as part of the testimony support this non-recessionary view. Real GDP is expected to grow by between 2% and 2. 5% between the fourth quarter of 2000 and the fourth quarter of this year. Since this is below the economy’s potential growth, the jobless rate will rise to approximately 4. 5% by year’s end. Inflation will moderate somewhat in response. Recession risks are rising and as high as they have been since the last downturn almost a decade ago. The key buffer between a soft economy and a recessionary one is confidence, and today’s testimony by the Federal Reserve chairman clearly indicates that policymakers will be as aggressive as they need to be to ensure that confidence erodes no further. With just a bit of luck they will succeed. All of the following may contribute to the deflation of confidence EXCEPT______
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