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I was impressed by the way he formulated his ideas.
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Transport and Trade1 Transport is one of the aids to trade. By moving goods from places where they are plentiful to places where they are scarce, transport adds to their value. The more easily goods can be brought over the distance that separates producer and consumer, the better for trade. When there were no railways, no good roads, no canals, and only small sailing ships, trade was on a small scale.2 The great advances made in transport during the last two hundred years were accompanied by a big increase in trade. Bigger and faster ships enabled a trade in meat to develop between Britain and New Zealand, for instance. Quicker transport makes possible mass-production and big business, drawing supplies from, and selling goods to, all parts of the globe. Big factories could not exist without transport to carry the large number of workers they need to and from their homes. Big city stores could not have developed unless customers could travel easily from the suburbs and goods delivered to their homes. Big cities could not survive unless food could be brought from a distance.3 Transport also prevents waste. Much of the fish landed at the ports would be wasted if it could not be taken quickly to inland towns. Transport has given us a much greater variety of foods and goods since we no longer have to live on what is produced locally. Foods which at one time could be obtained only during a part of the year can now be obtained all through the year. Transport has raised the standard of living.4 By moving fuel, raw materials, and even power, for example, through electric cables, transport has led to the establishment of industries and trade in areas where they would have been impossible before. Districts and countries can concentrate on making things which they can do better and more cheaply than others and can then exchange them with one another. The cheaper and quicker transport becomes, the longer the distance over which goods can profitably be carried. Countries with poor transport have a lower standard of living.5 Commerce requires not only the moving of goods and people but also the carrying of messages and information. Means of communication, like telephones, cables and radio, send information about prices, supplies, and changing conditions in different parts of the world. In this way, advanced communication systems also help to develop trade. Only when goods can be carried to all parts of the" world quickly ______.
Artificial SpeechBecause speech is the most convenient form of communication, in the future we want essentially natural conversations with computers. The primary point of contact will be a simple device that will act as our window into the world. It will have to be small enough to slip into our pocket, so there will be a screen but no keyboard: you will simply talk to it. The device will be permanently connected to the Internet and will keep relevant information up to you as it comes in. Such devices will evolve naturally in the next five to ten years.Just how quickly people will adapt to a voice-based Internet world is uncertain. Many believe that, initially at least, we will need similar conventions for the voice to those we use at present on screen: click, back, forward, and so on. But soon you will undoubtedly be able to interact by voice with all those IT-based services you currently connect with over the Internet by means of a keyboard. This will help the Internet serve the entire population.Changes like this will encompass (围绕，包围) the whole world. Because English is the language of science, it will probably remain the language in which the technology is most advanced, but most speech-recognition techniques are transferable to other languages provided (假如，若是) there is sufficient motivation to undertake the work.Of course, in any language there are still huge problems for us to solve. Carefully dictated, clear speech can now be understood by computers with only a 4～5 percent error rate, but even the most advanced technology still records 30～40 percent errors with spontaneous speech. Within ten years we will have computers that respond to goal-directed conversation, but for a computer to have a conversation that takes into account human social behaviors is probably 50 years off. We are not going to be chatting to the big screen in the living room just yet.In the past, insufficient speed and memory have held us back, but these days they are less of an issue. However, there are those in the IT community who believe that current techniques will eventually hit a brick wall. Personally, I believe that incremental (不断增长的) developments in performance are more likely. But it is true that by about 2040 or so, computer architectures will need to become highly parallel (并行的) if performance is to keep increasing. Perhaps that will inspire some radically new approaches to speech understanding that will replace the methods we are developing now. In the future, computers will be as small as match boxes.
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