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World Crude Oil Production May Peak Decade Earlier Than Some Predict In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil, scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014. This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS’ Energy & Fuels. lbrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil". "Peak oil" is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point, and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model. It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve. A related concept is that of "Peak Oil". The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak, afterwards to start on irreversible decline. The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970. The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide. However, recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes, politics, and other factors, the scientists say. The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries which supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate, they suggest. Which of the following is closest in meaning to the word "sparked" appearing in paragraph 2
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Text 2People who begin to go deaf in adult life have different problems from those who are born deaf. They have to learn different ways of behaving and different ways of communicating—perhaps at a time when learning is not at all that easy. A hearing aid is not a complete solution to the problem. The sound perceived by the deaf person through a hearing aid is distorted and appears to have more background noise than is heard by someone with normal hearing. Deafened people have to lipread as well.Lipreading is difficult, demands intense concentration, and an uninterrupted direct view of the speaker’s face. No other activities can take place at the same time: the lipreader has to stop eating, stop reading, stop washing up, stop mending, stop everything in order to concentrate on hearing. It is not a question of stupidity or bad temper—as it sometimes appears to be—but a question of being very easy to misunderstand when the sound is distorted. Remember what it’s like trying to communicate on a very bad telephone line. Frustrating, isn’t it The deaf have to face that all the time.A useful way of looking at the problem is to see the deaf person as a foreigner—to treat them as if you were in a foreign country. You would speak more clearly, slowly and raise your voice slightly. And you’d use gestures to make your meaning clear, as well as have no hesitation in using pencil and paper to be absolutely certain. You can do all those things with the deaf—as well as making sure you don’t obscure your mouth with your hand, a pipe or a cigarette.Another point quite often overlooked is that a hearing aid may be quite efficient and useful in a quite carpeted room—but try it in the high street in the rush hour, in a noisy car, in a railway station ticket office, a cinema or a concert hall and you’ve got a really difficult problem to distinguish speech. So don’t suggest to or encourage deaf people to go to functions which are going to make their disability appear worse—and increase their sense of failure.On the other hand careful selection of cinemas with good sound systems is important and you should experiment to find out where the best seats are for hearing, fitting adaptors for radio and television, observing which friends are easier to understand, and making sure that people talking are well-lit and all useful and positive activities. A person who loses hearing （）.
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