The Next Disaster: Are We ReadyAre We Really Prepared After the attacks on September 11 and the hurricanes that slammed the Gulf Coast last year, you’d expect our major cities to be ready with disaster plans that will save lives and property. There’s no doubt we’ll be hit again—maybe even harder—because the list of possible calamities (灾难) is long: from a bird flu pandemic to a massive California earthquake, to more monster storms, to another terrorist attack. But are we really prepared to protect people, as well as their homes and businesses Every major urban area has received federal funding, much of it from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in order to make their cities more secure. But there are no set criteria for measuring preparedness (the feds are working on that), and the quality of disaster plans varies widely throughout the country. So we decided to do an independent assessment of 10 high-risk urban areas, focusing on key security indicators. We analyzed public data, consulted with federal and local emergency workers, and contacted the mayors’ offices to gauge (测量) the readiness of these cities to meet both natural and man-made disasters. Our criteria fell under three main categories: Emergency Readiness, Crisis Communications, and Medical Response.Emergency Readiness Are there at least 1,000 first responders (such as police, fire and EMTs) per 100,000 residents They’re our first line of protection in almost any disaster situation—professionals who are trained to handle everything from rescuing victims to providing first aid, to enforcing quarantines (封锁), to directing traffic for evacuations (疏散). Are there federal search-and-rescue teams based within 50 miles Large cities often have specialized teams to deal with such things as high-rise-building rescues or hazardous chemical spills. But these squads are sometimes small, ill-equipped, or run on a shoestring. This is not true of federal urban search-and-rescue task forces that the DHS supports across the country. Each task force is made of 62 members and 4 canines, as well as a "comprehensive cache" of equipment. DHS task forces are not automatically assigned; a city needs to apply and present its case. Has the city or state earned "green status" from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Suppose that in the midst of a flu pandemic or bio terror attack, your city ran low on critical medicines. The CDC stands ready to help by distributing drugs and medical equipment from its Strategic National Stockpile. But the agency wants to know that a city or state is able to quickly mobilize hundreds of health workers and volunteers trained to handle the logistics, and has space set aside for storage and refrigeration. You’re best off if your city has earned the CDC’s "green status"—even if the state itself has not—because it means local health teams can handle the supplies on their own. Does the city website explain clearly what to do in case of evacuation Who can forget the images of stranded New Orleans residents, or the 5-mph crawl out of Houston It turned out that New Orleans’s evacuation plans were both inadequate and poorly communicated. One way cities can avoid a similar nightmare is to put clear and easy-to-find evacuation information on their websites. Some cities, such as Boston and Washington, post the preferred street routes. Others, like Las Vegas, won’t disclose details due to security fears, but their websites may provide ways to quickly get evacuation details when you need them (such as numbers to call or alert services you can sign up for). Among the more important things to address are people without vehicles of their own (a huge failing in New Orleans) and instructions for pet owners. Does the website include details for residents with special needs In July 1995, a vicious heat wave killed nearly 500 people in Chicago; a disproportionate number of them were older residents who lived alone. In any crisis, the elderly and disabled can be uniquely vulnerable. That’s why cities such as Houston are creating registries of residents who would need special help. Such lists would indicate, for instance, that a certain person in a certain apartment building is wheel-chair-bound. Other cities are instructing people with disabilities to call 911 for assistance—though this relies on phone systems that could be overloaded or go dead. If a city’s disaster planning shows no awareness of special-needs people, it isn’t complete.Crisis Communications Can first responders—police, fire and medical—talk to one another On September 11, firefighters died inside the World Trade Center because they could not make contact with police helicopters trying to radio warnings. Incompatible communications is a country-wide problem, and converting or replacing decades-old radio systems can be a long, expensive process. Cities have gotten a big boost if they’ve taken part in RapidCom, a DHS program providing technical assistance and training that speeds up the transition. Has the city adopted E911 Many cities have upgraded their 911 call centers in recent years, but they’re even better prepared if they’ve incorporated "E911" (or "enhanced 911"). This technology enables emergency operators to identify the precise location of cell-phone callers through GPS systems. If you wind up stranded in floodwaters, E911 could save your life. Does the city provide 24-bout emergency alerts What if an evacuation order goes out, but it’s 3 a.m. and you’re sound asleep Not a problem if your city has a way of alerting you at any time of day. Some rely on street sirens (警报器) to do the trick. Others have used their websites to invite residents to sign up for e-mail notifications or automated phone calls in an emergency.Medical Response Are there at least 500 hospital beds for every 100,000 residents Getting to victims quickly is a critical first step. But you’d better have a place to take them for treatment. A reasonable standard, according to preparedness experts, is 500 hospital beds for every 100,000 people—a ratio that would likely mean a city could find enough spare beds in an emergency. Of course, beds alone won’t help a massive number of burn victims or people suffering from chemical exposure unless the hospital is prepared to treat them. But all the cities in our survey have specialty units in their hospitals that can handle such cases. Are local teams trained to respond quickly and work together If an urban area was targeted by weapons of mass destruction, city health officials couldn’t just wait for federal help to arrive. First responders and hospitals would need to react fight away. They could also need medical volunteers—say, to help vaccinate people or distribute medicines and supplies. How to ensure that all these professionals and volunteers work together as seamlessly as possible If a city is part of DHS’s Metropolitan Medical Response System, it has obtained federal assistance in developing plans, and has received critical training and equipment. Are there labs nearby that specialize in biological and chemical threats The CDC is on the cutting edge with its Laboratory Response Network—integrated labs nationwide that have the equipment and expertise to quickly identify pathogens and toxic chemicals. An LRN lab in Florida was the first to detect anthrax (炭疽热) in terrorist mailings in 2001. Laboratories can be members only if they have highly trained staff and exceptional facilities, as well as a track record of testing accuracy. A handful of LRN labs qualify as "Level 1", meaning they can test for chemical poisons such as mustard and nerve agents. Policeman, fireman and emergency doctors all can be called first responders.