TEXT B Meteorologists routinely tell us what next week’s weather is likely to he, and climate scientists discuss what might happen in 100 years. Christoph Schar, though, ventures dangerously close to that middle realm, where previously only the Farmer’s Almanac dared go: what will next summer’s weather be like Following last year’s tragic heat wave, which directly caused the death of tens of thousands of people, the question is of burning interest to Europeans. Schar asserts that last summer’s sweltering temperatures should no longer be thought of as extraordinary. "The situation in 2002 and 2003 in Europe, where we had a summer with extreme rainfall and record flooding followed by the hottest summer in hundreds of years, is going to be typical for future weather patterns," he says. Most Europeans have probably never read Schar’s report (not least because it was published in the scientific journal Nature in the dead of winter) but they seem to be bracing themselves for the worst. As part of its new national "heat-wave plan", France issued a level-three alert when temperatures in Provence reached 34 degrees Celsius three days in a row; hospital and rescue workers were asked to prepare for an influx of patients. Italian government officials have proposed creating a national registry of people over 65 so they can be herded into air-conditioned supermarkets in the event of another heat wave. London’s mayor has offered a 100,000 pound reward for anybody who can come up with a practical way of cooling the city’s underground trains, where temperatures have lately reached nearly 40 degrees Celsius. (The money hasn’t been claimed.) Global warming seems to have permanently entered the European psyche. If the public is more aware, though, experts are more confused. When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change hammered out its last assessment in 2001, scientists pulled together the latest research and made their best estimate of how much the Earth’s atmosphere would warm during the next century. There was a lot they didn’t know, but they were confident they’d be able to plug the gaps in time for the next report, due out in 2007. When they explored the fundamental physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, though, they found something unexpected: the way the atmosphere—and, in particular, clouds—respond to increasing levels of carbon is far more complex and difficult to predict than they had expected. "We thought we’d reduce the uncertainty, but that hasn’t happened," says Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and a lead author of the next IPCC report. "As we delve further and further into the science and gain a better understanding of the true complexity of the atmosphere, the uncertainties have gotten deeper." This doesn’t mean, of course, that the world isn’t warming. Only the biased or the deluded deny that temperatures have risen, and that human activity has something to do with it. The big question that scientists have struggled with is how much warming will occur over the next century With so much still unknown in the climate equation, there’s no way of telling whether warnings of catastrophe are overblown or if things are even more dire than we thought. Why do scientists like Schar make predictions Because, like economists, it’s their job to hazard a best guess with the resources at hand-namely, vast computer programs that simulate what the Earth’s atmosphere will do in certain circumstances. These models incorporate all the latest research into how the Earth’s atmosphere behaves. But there are problems with the computer models. The atmosphere is very big, but also consists of a multitude of tiny interactions among particles of dust, soot, cloud droplets and trace gases that cannot be safely ignored. Current models don’t have nearly the resolution they need to capture what goes on at such small scales. Scientists got an inkling that something was missing from the models in the early 1990s when they ran a peculiar experiment. They had the leading models simulate warming over the next century and got a similar answer from each. Then they ran the models again-this time accounting for what was then known about cloud physics. All of the following statements are true of climate scientists EXCEPT that
A. they are all clued up about climate.
B. they don’t know much about climate.
C. they are probing into the field of climate.
D. they are uncertain of climatic phenomena.
Passage ThreeQuestions 32 to 35 are based on the passage you have just heard.
A. Stay away from the infected people.
B. Have a good rest and drink plenty of fluids.
C. Get the flu shot once a year.
D. Take medicines like aspirin in advance.
TEXT C The United Nations was founded to promote peace, prosperity and human rights. It is doing somewhat better on the first two counts than its critics sometimes make out. The last, however, has been such a failure that it is threatening to bring the whole edifice down. Once revered as the creator of all the great universal human-rights rules and instruments, the 53-member Commission on Human Rights has been thoroughly discredited. If it cannot be fixed it needs to be scrapped. In its present form it serves only to make a mockery of the cause. The reason for this is simple enough. The present committee is packed with members who are themselves serial abusers of human rights. Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary General, admits that their main purpose in being on the committee is not to strengthen human rights but to protect themselves from criticism. At present, these members include exemplars of virtue such as Zimbabwe, Sudan, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, Nepal and Russia—a veritable roll call of the worst offenders. A plan of sorts exists to reform this mess. Mr. Annan called for the replacement of the commission, which at present meets for just six weeks once a year, by a leaner, tougher, year-round Human Rights Council, which would he ready to act whenever serious abuse was discovered, and whose members should have a solid record on human rights. America and the other leading democracies backed the idea. The serial abusers did not. In the wrangling at a summit on wider UN reforms, Mr. Annan’s baby was reduced to a skeleton. Many wondered whether it could survive. Amazingly, it has just. There is now agreement on the need for a new body, on a par with the Security Council, that would meet several times a year including, when necessary, for emergencies. But its size, powers and composition are still up for grabs. The Americans want no more than 30 members, all with solid human-rights credentials, elected by a two-thirds majority of the General Assembly, along with a routine review of human rights in all 191 UN member states. The abusers want as big a body as possible, elected by a simple majority, as at present, with no membership criteria, and no automatic peer review. Any reform must not just shrink the commission, but must also change the way in which members are elected. At present, regions usually put forward a slate of candidates corresponding to their allotted number of seats, which the General Assembly votes on to the commission as a block. Under one sensible proposal, regions would be required to put forward more contestants than their quota. Each candidate country would then stand separately for election by the General Assembly. Early peer review of all members would further reduce the temptation for thugs to try to get seats. But opposition is fierce, not only from the most notorious offenders, but also from those middle-ranking ones who fear their relatively minor abuses would be put under the spotlight. Timing is tight. The old, unreformed commission is due to hold its next annual meeting. Mr. Annan wants a new one to be ready to take over by then. That means reaching agreement on a blueprint within the next few weeks. If agreement is stymied, the next-best solution will be to wind the existing commission up altogether. Human rights matter too much for the UN to continue to shunt the subject off to a cynical talking shop that has become home to the worst violators. That just blackens the overall reputation of the UN. It can be inferred from the fourth paragraph that
A. Human Rights Council is expected to imitate Security Council
B. there is compromise on powers of Human Rights Council.
C. some countries want to maximize their chance of getting a seat.
D. some details concerning membership responsibility are up in the air.