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Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. The panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the Unite States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive slack. America’s capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment — rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.Why has inflation proved so mild The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up- ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation. According to the passage, which of the following is true（）
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Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. The panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the Unite States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive slack. America’s capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment — rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.Why has inflation proved so mild The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up- ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation. From the passage we learn that（）
Well, no gain without pain, they say. But what about pain without gain Everywhere you go in America, you hear tales of corporate revival. What is harder to establish is whether the productivity revolution that businessmen assume they are presiding over is for real.The official statistics are mildly discouraging. They show that, if you put manufacturing and services together, productivity has grown on average by 1.2% since 1987. That is somewhat faster than the average during the previous decade. And since 1991, productivity has increased by 2% a year, which is more than twice the 1978—1987 average. The trouble is that part of the recent acceleration is due to the usual rebound that occurs at this point in a business cycle, and so is not conclusive evidence of a revival in the underlying trend. There is, as Robert Rubin, the treasury secretary, says, a "disjunction" between the mass of business anecdote that points to a leap in productivity and the picture reflected by the statistics.Some of this can be easily explained. New ways of organizing the workplace — all that re- engineering and downsizing — are only one contribution to the overall productivity of an economy, which is driven by many other factors such as joint investment in equipment and machinery, new technology, and investment in education and training. Moreover, most of the changes that companies make are intended to keep them profitable, and this need not always mean increasing productivity: switching to new markets or improving quality can matter just as much.Two other explanations are more speculative. First, some of the business restructuring of recent years may have been ineptly done. Second, even if it was well done, it may have spread much less widely than people suppose.Leonard Schlesinger, a Harvard academic and former chief executive of Au Bon Pain, a rapidly growing chain of bakery cafes, says that much "re-engineering" has been crude. In many cases, he believes, the loss of revenue has been greater than the reductions in cost. His colleague, Michael Beer, says that far too many companies have applied re-engineering in a mechanistic fashion, chopping out costs without giving sufficient thought to long-term profitability. BBDO’s A1 Rosenshine is blunter. He dismisses a lot of the work of re- engineering consultants as mere rubbish — "the worst sort of ambulance-chasing. \ The official statistics on productivity growth（）
In Japan, most people still feel that a woman’s place is in the home; and most women willingly accept their (31) role as wife, leaving the business of making a living (32) their husbands. For those who do want a (33) of their own, opportunities are limited, and working women usually have to (34) for low wages, fewer promotions, less responsible (35) .In America, on the other hand, most women, (36) wives and mothers, work most of their times. But (37) few have had real careers. As in Japan, most fields are (38) by men and opportunities for women have been (39) , salaries low, chances for advancement (40) American women work mainly because they (41) ; in these days of inflation and luxury living, (42) income per family is simply not enough to (43) . So American women actually have two jobs: one nine-to-five position outside the home, and (44) round-the-clock in the home job (45) wife, housemaid, cook and nurse.One of the main goals of the modern women’s liberation movement, which started (46) , was to eliminate sex discrimination in the work force, and to (47) careers for women that were previously (48) for men. And though there is still a long way to (49) , a lot of progress has been (50) . （47）（）
In Japan, most people still feel that a woman’s place is in the home; and most women willingly accept their (31) role as wife, leaving the business of making a living (32) their husbands. For those who do want a (33) of their own, opportunities are limited, and working women usually have to (34) for low wages, fewer promotions, less responsible (35) .In America, on the other hand, most women, (36) wives and mothers, work most of their times. But (37) few have had real careers. As in Japan, most fields are (38) by men and opportunities for women have been (39) , salaries low, chances for advancement (40) American women work mainly because they (41) ; in these days of inflation and luxury living, (42) income per family is simply not enough to (43) . So American women actually have two jobs: one nine-to-five position outside the home, and (44) round-the-clock in the home job (45) wife, housemaid, cook and nurse.One of the main goals of the modern women’s liberation movement, which started (46) , was to eliminate sex discrimination in the work force, and to (47) careers for women that were previously (48) for men. And though there is still a long way to (49) , a lot of progress has been (50) . (46)（）
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