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欲比较两组资料的生存率曲线，可采用
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The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) conservatively estimates that, by 2005, worldwide electronic, computer-dependent commerce will grow from its current $30 billion annually to approximately $1 trillion every year . 61) Growth in electronic commerce is not a straight line trend—it comes slowly at first, then accelerates rapidly. For example, an innovation at one Internet site may create a base that leads to the development of many other sites. The OECD timber estimates that, of this commerce,80 percent will be business-to-business, though the retail share will clearly be worth capturing — 20 percent of $1 trillion is no small figure.It is easy to forget that the Worldwide Web did not exist before 1991 and was not commercialized until 1994. 62) Nonetheless, although it may take six years to reach sales of $1 trillion, it won’ t take six more to reach $2 trillion, nor perhaps even two to expand from 2 to 4 trillion dollars. One reason for this acceleration will be the growth in computer ownership. According to one projection, by 2005,70 percent of American households will have a computer—a figure that may well be closer to 98 percent because computers will be free to customers who sign up intemet service as part of the manufacturer’s package.63) Electronic commerce will turn the world into one giant shopping mall for products, services. and investments. One obvious effect will be the creation of geographically mobile capital, but even more un portantly, e-commerce will make a global marketplace for labor services, and thus the practical equivalent of worldwide labor mobility. People will be able to live in one nation and earn income in another.64) By 2005,more than half of the average employee’s working hours in advanced countries( like the United States and the United Kingdom)will be spent at home. In occupations where physical contact is important — selling, for example—businesses will end to locate closer to where employees want to live rather than making them commute. In fact, businesses will have to pay a high premium to attract commuters because labor markets will be tight—as they already are in America and England and as they may eventually become in continental Europe. 65) Employees will be, figuratively speaking, in the driver’s seat. As a result, large cities will increasingly be surrounded by full-service communities. The cities will not die, but jobs, entertainment, and the like will move to the suburbs that have been quickly expanding around them. Electronic commerce will turn the world into one giant shopping mall for products, services. and investments.
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