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Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $ 26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil price calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this timeThe oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimated in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $ 22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25--0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies--to which heavy industry has shifted--have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist’s commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries ().
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Comparisons were drawn between the development of television in the 20th century and the diffusion of printing in the 15th and 16th centuries. Yet much had happened (21) . As was discussed before, it was not (22) the 19th century that the newspaper became the dominant pre-electronic (23) , following in the wake of the pamphlet and the book and in the (24) of the periodical. It was during the same time that the communications revolution (25) up, beginning with transport, the railway, and leading (26) through the telegraph, the telephone, radio, and motion pictures (27) the 20th-century world of the motor car and the air plane. Not everyone sees that process in (28) . It is important to do so.It is generally recognized, (29) , that the introduction of the computer in the early 20th century, (30) by the invention of the integrated circuit during the 1960s, radically changed the process, (31) its impact on the media was not immediately (32) . As time went by, computers became smaller and more powerful, and they became "personal" too, as well as (33) , with display becoming sharper and storage (34) increasing. They were thought of, like people, (35) generations, with the distance between generations much (36) .It was within the computer age that the term "information society" began to be widely used to describe the (37) within which we now live. The communications revolution has (38) both work and leisure and how we think and feel both about place and time, but there have been (39) view about its economic, political, social and cultural implications. "Benefits" have been weighed (40) "harmful" outcomes. And generalizations have proved difficult. 23().
W: Mr. Glieberman, do you see any change in the high rate of broken marriagesM: The divorce rate is beginning to level off and probably will begin to drop in the next year or two, though not significantly. The tight economy has made it more difficult for troubled couples to handle all the costs associated with setting up separate households. Also, I believe there’s a comeback of thought--after the turbulent ’60s and ’70s--that the family does have value. In the midst of change and family disintegration, people seem to have a greater desire now to create stability in their lives.W: What is the divorce rate nowM: About 1 in 3 marriages ends in divorce, a ratio far higher than it was 20 years ago when the philosophy was "We’ll tough it out no matter what. Society demands that, for appearances’ sake, we stay together. "Divorce no longer carries much disgrace. There’s no way, for example, that Ronald Reagan, a divorced man, could have been elected President in 1960. And there are countless other divorced politicians who years ago would have been voted out of office if they had even considered a divorce, let alone gotten one.The same was true in the corporate structure, where divorced people rarely moved up the executive ladder. Now corporations welcome a divorced man, because they can shift him around the country without worrying about relocating his family or making certain that they are happy. Why did some people choose not to divorce 20 years ago().
阅读下面的短文，文章中有5处空白，文章后面有6组文字，请根据文章的内容选择 5组文字，将其分别放回文章原有位置，以恢复文章原貌。 Caribbean Islands What would you see if you took a cruise to the Caribbean Islands Palm trees and coconuts (椰子) White beaches and clear, blue ocean Colorful corals (珊瑚) and even more colorful fishes and birds You bet. There are thousands of islands in the Caribbean Sea. They are famous for their warm, tropical climate and great natural beauty. The Caribbean Islands form a chain that separates the Caribbean Sea from the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. (46) Many of the islands were formed by the eruption (爆发) of ancient volcanoes (火山). Others are low-lying coral islands that gradually rose from the ocean. The Caribbean Islands are known by several names. (47) The explorer Christopher Columbus called the islands the Indies in 1492 because he thought he was near the coast of India. Later, Spain and France called the islands the Antilles. There are four large islands in the Caribbean Sea. (48) These four islands are often called the Greater Antilles. Together, they account for about 90 percent of the land area of the Caribbean islands. The rest of the Caribbean Islands are much smaller. (49) You can see why pirates such as the famous Blackbeard sailed these waters. There are countless small islands to bury treasure or hide on. The weather of the Caribbean Sea is almost always warm and sunny. Sandy beaches line the coasts of many islands. (50) Many tourists arrive on cruise ships.A. But life on the Caribbean Islands is not always paradise.B. The earliest name used by Europeans is the Indies, later changed to the West Indies.C. They’re like a long necklace that stretches between North and South America.D. They are Cuba, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and Hispaniola.E. This is why millions of tourists visit the islands each year.F. Some of these islands are no more than tiny slivers (小片) of exposed coral.
阅读下面的短文，文中有15处空白，每处空白给出了4个选项，请根据短文的内容从 4个选项中选杆1个最佳答案。 Something Men Do Not Like to Do Eric Brown hates shopping. "It’s just not enjoyable to me," said the 28-year-old Chicago man who was carrying several shopping bags along the city’s main street, Michigan Avenue. "When I’m out (51) , I basically know what I want to get. I rush in. I buy it. I (52) ." Common wisdom says that guys hate to shop. You can ask generations of men. But people who study shopping say that a number of social, cultural and economic factors are now (53) this "men-hate-to-shop" notion. (54) social class and age, men say they hate to shop," says Sharon Zukin, a City University of New York sociology professor. "Yet when you ask them deeper questions, it turns out that they (55) to shop. Men generally like to shop for (56) , music and hardware (硬件). But if you ask them about the shopping they do for books or music, they’ll say, ’Well, that’s not shopping. That’s (57) " In other words, what men and women call "buying things" and how they approach that task are (58) . Women will (59) through several 1,000-square-metre stores in search of the perfect party dress. Men will wander through 100 Internet sites in search of the (60) digital camcorder (摄像放像机). Women see shopping as a social event. Men see it as a mission or A. (61) to be won. "Men are frequently shopping to win," says Mary Ann McGrath, a marketing professor at Loyola University of Chicago. "They want to get the best deal. They want to get the best one, the last one and if they do that it (62) them happy." When women shop, "they’re doing it in a way where they want (63) to be very happy," says McGrath. "They’re kind of shopping for love." In fact, it is in clothing where we see a male-female (64) most clearly. Why, complain some men, are all male clothes navy, black or brown But would they wear light green and pink (粉红色的) These days, many guys wear a sort of "uniform", says Pace Underhill, author of "Why We Buy". "It’s been hard for them to understand what it means to be fashion-conscious (时尚) in a business way. It becomes much, much easier (65) you narrow your range of choices."
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